RBI Policy and Trade Developments to Drive Markets in Holiday-Shortened Week

Indian markets face a volatile week ahead as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision and US-India trade negotiations take center stage. With Thursday's closure for Dussehra and Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti, traders will compress their activity into four sessions dominated by macroeconomic cues.

The RBI's October 1 policy meeting looms large, with analysts divided on the likelihood of rate cuts. Industrial production data and manufacturing PMI figures will provide additional touchpoints for assessing India's economic trajectory. Derivatives expiry on September contracts may amplify intraday swings.

Global investors remain fixated on progress in US-India trade talks after both nations committed to accelerated negotiations. A breakthrough could trigger relief rallies across emerging markets. Stateside, upcoming US economic indicators and dollar strength will influence risk appetite.